Grok 4 released Q2 2026?
If correct, each share pays $1.00 · Max position $10,000
Probability History180 days
Market Details
Settlement
Dec 31, 2026
Total Volume
$9.1M
24h Volume
$308K
Liquidity
$2.2M
Traders
1,764
Creator Fee
2%
Position Limit
$10,000
Spread
$0.026
Currency
USDC
Resolution Source
Regulatory body or government confirmation
Resolution Criteria
Resolves "Yes" if the described event occurs before settlement. Determined by regulatory body or government confirmation. If ambiguous, resolves via community vote with 72h dispute window.
Order BookSpread: $0.026
Recent Trades
| Time | Side | Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47m ago | NO | $0.396 | 238 | $94.25 |
| 47m ago | NO | $0.396 | 238 | $94.25 |
| 47m ago | NO | $0.396 | 239 | $94.64 |
| 47m ago | NO | $0.396 | 239 | $94.64 |
| 47m ago | NO | $0.396 | 239 | $94.64 |
| 47m ago | NO | $0.396 | 239 | $94.64 |
| 47m ago | NO | $0.396 | 239 | $94.64 |
| 47m ago | NO | $0.396 | 239 | $94.64 |
| 47m ago | NO | $0.396 | 239 | $94.64 |
| 47m ago | NO | $0.396 | 239 | $94.64 |
| 2h ago | NO | $0.386 | 766 | $295.68 |
| 2h ago | NO | $0.386 | 766 | $295.68 |
| 2h ago | NO | $0.386 | 766 | $295.68 |
| 2h ago | NO | $0.386 | 766 | $295.68 |
| 2h ago | NO | $0.386 | 766 | $295.68 |
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Discussion(38)
This market is underpriced. Insider momentum is clearly building based on recent hiring patterns and patent filings.
People are overestimating the probability here. There are significant regulatory hurdles that the market isn't accounting for.
Just loaded up on YES. The recent news flow has been overwhelmingly positive -- check the latest SEC filing.
Interesting to see the spread tighten. Big money moving in on the NO side over the past week. Watching closely.
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